Econ flashcards (chapter 6)
Terms
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- behavioral equations
- Economic relations that are hypothesized to be true
- business cycle
- Rhythmic pattern of contraction and expansion in the overall economy
- composite index
- Weighted average of leading, coincident, or lagging economic indicators
- delphi method
- Method that uses forecasts derived from an independent analysis of expert opinion
- econometric methods
- Use of economic theory and statistical tools to forecast economic relations
- economic expansion
- Period of rising economic activity
- economic indicators
- Data that describe projected, current, or past economic activity
- economic recession
- Period of declining economic activity
- exponential smoothing
- Averaging method for forecasting time series of data
- forecast group
- Subsample of data used to test a forecast model
- forecast reliability
- Predictive consistency
- growth trend analysis
- Assumes constant percentage change over time
- Identities
- Economic relations that are true by definition
- irregular or random influences
- Unpredictable shocks to the economic system
- linear trend analysis
- Assumes constant unit change over time
- macroeconomic forecasting
- Prediction of aggregate economic activity
- one-parameter (simple) exponential smoothing
- Method for forecasting slowly changing levels
- panel consensus
- Forecast method based on the informed opinion of several individuals
- personal insight
- Forecast method based on personal or organizational experience
- qualitative analysis
- An intuitive judgmental approach to forecasting based on opinion
- sample mean forecast error
- Estimate of average forecast error
- seasonality
- Rhythmic annual patterns in sales or profits
- secular trend
- Long-run pattern of increase or decrease
- survey techniques
- Interview or mailed questionnaire approach to forecasting
- test group
- Subsample of data used to generate a forecast model
- three-parameter (Winters) exponential smoothing
- Method for forecasting seasonally adjusted growth
- trend analysis
- Forecasting the future path of economic variables based on historical patterns
- two-parameter (Holt) exponential smoothing
- Method for forecasting stable growth