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Econ flashcards (chapter 6)


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behavioral equations
Economic relations that are hypothesized to be true
business cycle
Rhythmic pattern of contraction and expansion in the overall economy
composite index
Weighted average of leading, coincident, or lagging economic indicators
delphi method
Method that uses forecasts derived from an independent analysis of expert opinion
econometric methods
Use of economic theory and statistical tools to forecast economic relations
economic expansion
Period of rising economic activity
economic indicators
Data that describe projected, current, or past economic activity
economic recession
Period of declining economic activity
exponential smoothing
Averaging method for forecasting time series of data
forecast group
Subsample of data used to test a forecast model
forecast reliability
Predictive consistency
growth trend analysis
Assumes constant percentage change over time
Economic relations that are true by definition
irregular or random influences
Unpredictable shocks to the economic system
linear trend analysis
Assumes constant unit change over time
macroeconomic forecasting
Prediction of aggregate economic activity
one-parameter (simple) exponential smoothing
Method for forecasting slowly changing levels
panel consensus
Forecast method based on the informed opinion of several individuals
personal insight
Forecast method based on personal or organizational experience
qualitative analysis
An intuitive judgmental approach to forecasting based on opinion
sample mean forecast error
Estimate of average forecast error
Rhythmic annual patterns in sales or profits
secular trend
Long-run pattern of increase or decrease
survey techniques
Interview or mailed questionnaire approach to forecasting
test group
Subsample of data used to generate a forecast model
three-parameter (Winters) exponential smoothing
Method for forecasting seasonally adjusted growth
trend analysis
Forecasting the future path of economic variables based on historical patterns
two-parameter (Holt) exponential smoothing
Method for forecasting stable growth

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